Modeling Social, Economic, Technical & Environmental Components in an Energy System

Energy system models have become the main supporting tool for energy policy. Modern challenges in energy policy require energy systems models that integrate technical, environmental and societal aspects of the energy systems. In this paper, we introduce a conceptual model for an energy system model that specifies the relationships between social, technical, environmental, and economic aspects of an energy system. This conceptual model presented in the IDEF0 language will serve as a basis for a computational energy systems model. © 2016 The Authors

A Simulation-Based Approach to Risk Assessment and Mitigation in Supply Chain Networks

We present in this paper a simulation-based approach to evaluate the risk associated with supply chain disruptions caused by failures in some supply chains nodes and measure the impact of such disruptions on supply chain key performance measures (KPIs) of interest. The proposed framework enables analysts and managers to repeatedly assess the risk to their supply chains based on various simulated scenarios and identify the most critical nodes whose disruption will have the highest impact on the KPIs of interest. As a result, companies can focus on the most critical supply chain assets and develop targeted mitigation plans that minimize their risk. 2015 The Authors

Host-feeding patterns of Aedes (Aedimorphus) vexans arabiensis, a Rift Valley Fever virus vector in the Ferlo pastoral ecosystem of Senegal

Background: Host-vector contact is a key factor in vectorial capacity assessment and thus the transmission of mosquito-borne viruses such as Rift Valley Fever (RVF), an emerging zoonotic disease of interest in West Africa. The knowledge of the host-feeding patterns of vector species constitutes a key element in the assessment of their epidemiological importance in a given environment. The aim of this work was to identify the blood meal origins of the mosquito Aedes vexans arabiensis, the main vector of RVF virus in the Ferlo pastoral ecosystem of Senegal. Methodology/principal findings: Engorged female mosquitoes were collected in Younoufe´re´ in the pastoral ecosystem in the Ferlo region during the 2014 rainy season. CO2-baited CDC light traps were set at six points for two consecutive nights every month from July to November. Domestic animals present around traps were identified and counted for each trapping session. Blood meal sources of engorged mosquitoes were identified using a vertebrate-specific multiplexed primer set based on cytochrome b. Blood meal sources were successfully identified for 319 out of 416 blood-fed females (76.68%), of which 163 (51.1%) were single meals, 146 (45.77%) mixed meals from two different hosts and 10 (3.13%) mixed meals from three different hosts. Aedes vexans arabiensis fed preferentially on mammals especially on horse compared to other hosts (FR = 46.83). Proportions of single and mixed meals showed significant temporal and spatial variations according to the availability of the hosts. Conclusion: Aedes vexans arabiensis shows an opportunistic feeding behavior depending on the host availability. This species fed preferentially on mammals especially on horses (primary hosts) and ruminants (secondary hosts)

Explicating Correlates of Juvenile Offender Detention Length: The Impact of Race, Mental Health Difficulties, Maltreatment, Offense Type, and Court Dispositions

Detention and confinement are widely acknowledged juvenile justice system problems which require further research to understand the explanations for these outcomes. Existing juvenile court, mental health, and child welfare histories were used to explicate factors which predict detention length in this random sample of 342 youth from one large, urban Midwestern county in the United States. Data from this sample revealed eight variables which predict detention length. Legitimate predictors of longer detention length such as committing a personal crime or violating a court order were nearly as likely in this sample to predict detention length as other extra-legal predictors such as race, court disposition for mental health problems, child welfare involvement, and child physical abuse victimization. Many of the factors that increase duration of detention are actually disadvantages that these youth endure; therefore preventative and intervention measures are in order

Predicting Juvenile Delinquency: The Nexus Of Childhood Maltreatment, Depression And Bipolar Disorder

Background It is important to identify and provide preventative interventions for youth who are most at risk for offending behaviour, but the connection between early childhood or adolescent experiences and later delinquency adjudication is complicated. Aim To test for associations between specified mental disorders or maltreatment and later delinquency adjudication. Method Participants were a random sample of youth before the juvenile courts in two Northeast Ohio counties in the USA (n = 555) over a 4-year time frame (2003 to 2006). Results Logistic regression analysis identified a lifetime diagnosis of depression and/or bipolar disorder to be predictive of later youth delinquency adjudication, but found that childhood maltreatment (or involvement with the child welfare system) made delinquency outcomes less likely. Implications Study implications are discussed as they relate to professionals working in the fields of child welfare, social work, mental health and juvenile justice. Awareness of risks associated with maltreatment may have led to effective interventions, while there may be less awareness of risks from depression in young people; however, studies tend not to take account of intervention variables